Hurricane!

Just might get that wish as hurricane season starts in 14 days.

The big problem with much of the discussions about trends in hurricane activity is that the databases that everyone is working from are known to have significant inhomogeneities due to changes in observing practice and technology over the years. So it's not surprising that a new re-analysis (Kossin et al, published yesterday) has been generating significant interest and controversy among the hurricane research community (see e.g. Prometheus or Chris Mooney). However, rather than this study being taken for what it is - a preliminary and useful attempt to make homogeneous a part of the data (1983 to 2005) - it is unfortunately being treated as if it was the definitive last word.

Other people have argued that the CO2 emissions measurably increase the number or intensity of hurricanes. After the most quiet Atlantic hurricane season in 10 years, these speculators prefer not to speak about their hypothesis and try to wait for "better" years that would provide them with some evidence. There has never been any scientific evidence for this hypothetical link and the available recent data strongly disfavor it and perhaps rule it out. I could go on and on and on but the conclusion is clear: the carbon dioxide emissions don't cause any property damage.

During every hurricane season without fail, I’ll hear someone say something to the following effect: “It’s no wonder we are having so many devastating storms; God is demonstrating His great displeasure at the fact that people have become so wicked.” The sad part is that most of the people who say such things are very sincere Christians who actually believe what they are saying to be true. However, such uninformed conjecture is about as far from the truth as it can get.

beSpacific links to the documents surrounding the call by a Senate Committee to disband FEMA and create a new entitiy to replace it. This is of the same level of political grandstanding as offering each citizen a $100 one-time rebate to offset gas prices that have doubled. What is their timeframe, now that the start of hurricane season is months away? And what would this new “superagency” have that FEMA doesn’t? Check the executive summary…

Now, I hate to point out the obvious, but Florida sees a lot of hurricanes. And while I understand that the public needs to feel some sort of responsibility [read: control] over the insurance regulations in their state, if I were a Florida home or business owner, I’d expect to be paying a fair amount to insure my property. And, I’d probably expect that with eight hurricanes in two years, insurers would need to increase their rates to cover their risk or they’d go out of business. And then Florida home insurance would be akin to New Jersey auto insurance, it'd be a mess and Florida residents would be even more upset.

In a scant four months, hurricane season will be upon us once more. Those trailers are very vulnerable. The places that are used as shelters will not be able to handle the people from 40,000 trailers.

Even though I previously reported that the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season had ended, it appears my entry of four weeks ago was premature. The season acutally ended today as Tropical Depression Zeta finally dissipated. Forecaster Stewart at the National Hurricane Center reports:

21. Considered opening a water park in New Orleans during the Hurricane season.

We changed the wedding date again. It’s currently set to May 27, 2007, exactly two years from our engagement date. We chose May because the Bahamas offer the best prices that month, but it’s before hurricane season kicks in. In addition I think it’ll be special to marry on the date of our engagement.

So you thought hurricane season was over? So did I, but Tropical Storm Zeta is out there, 3830 mi from my house.

One of the lessons I learned from this cat season — Katrina in particular — is just how much uncertainty exists in cat model outputs, particularly when looking at single- or multi-location accounts, and most especially when considering potential damageability from storm surge.

The 2005 hurricane season was a terror for those living along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. Here’s a tally of what happened.

It’s a good thing the hurricane season is about over - but will there be a sense of deja vu all over again after the first hurricane hits America next year.

On a couple of occasions, Barry and I have discussed the gas price hikes during hurricane season. For the most part I came to the defense of big oil, explaining that there really were reasons why gas prices would climb so quickly other than the obvious profit motive. The short argument is we have inadequate refining capacity huddled right down hurricane alley. In fact, I am relatively sure that a fair number of gas stations were actually selling it at a loss. There was a flattening of prices for a while, with name gas stations charging only a few cents more than the discounters and only a few cents difference between Dixona (where oil is generally cheap) and Deseret (where it is not so cheap). That’s usually indicative of gas prices running up against an artificial barrier (in this case, the $3 mark. The same thing happened when it hit $2). Gas stations by and large make their money through the convenience stores they’re attached to, and I am guessing that some of them were willing to lose a bit on gas to get people to come in to their stores. Or at least willing to forego much of any profit.

Second, I'm sick of the concept of sticking a wealthy, pampered reporter in hurricane weather and then telling us how brave they are. Screw them. People that have to work in these areas are brave. People who get up and leave everything they own in the world behind in the hurricane zone in order to save their own lives, those people are brave. Reporters in hurricane zones are not brave.

It’s raining quietly now…the first bits of hurricane weather we’ve gotten. Earlier I worked out in the garden, cutting back our Black-Eyed Susans and pulling weeds since the beds were already damp from rain yesterday. Wonderful time to be doing tidying types of work outside. The clouds were thick and before it began raining, it was nice and relaxing out there.

I was in Florida during the hurricane season last year, and felt two of the storms. Neither was anywhere near as bad as Katrina will be, but they were still frightening experiences.

In other news I like the weather outside: mercurial, playful, bands of clean gold sunlight and bruised gray tatter alternating, the wind alive in a way difficult to put to words. The air is humid but fresh and restless, like a retriever puppy tearing around a grassy park snapping at butterlies and falling leaves and tumbling end over end for the sheer hell of it… Pre-hurricane weather makes me glad to have ever experienced Florida living. Nothing like it.

Newsflash! During the months of July thru September is hurricane season. Also in the news, it’s summer time and Americans tend to take more road trips during this time. New excuses to raise gas prices, do you have any?

The weather worldwide has been a bit mucked up and crazy lately. From heat waves throughout the US and Europe to snow in Australia, it's been nuts. But one of the bigger concerns is that it's shaping up to be an wham, bam, thank you ma'am of a hurricane season for the Southeastern United States. At this point you may be wondering why someone way up in Michigan would be worried about what's happening way down in Florida. Two reasons. A) My grandparents spend their winters in Florida and B) Hurricanes affect weather patterns up here too. When it rains down there it pushes it way up here too. And right now, rain would be a very, very good thing here, where we've been setting record highs in the 90s and up!

i’m glad to hear that discovery landed safely in edwards afb. i guess hurricane season isn’t the best time to launch and land a shuttle. here’s a thought, why not put the space center in a weather free zone like eastern cali or nevada? no, i guess that would make too much sense.

I’ve heard predictions that it is to climb over the $3/Gallon mark once hurricane season really starts setting in.

CNN) – Tropical Storm Irene – the ninth named storm of the 2005 hurricane season – was packing winds just below hurricane strength late Friday, and was expected to become a hurricane Saturday, forecasters said.

I really worry about those who are in Florda and other areas that get hit most often. Many people have barely begun to recover from last years storms. And now they have to worry about what this year will bring. I can only hope that the predictions are wrong, but with 2 hurricanes already named…I really dont think it is going to be a good year.

One week from today, Cute Blonde and I will be chilling in the hurricane weather of Orlando, FL. It’s gonna be pretty exciting.

The truth is that Hurricane season is an elaborate conspiracy, put together by various evil south eastern meteorologists and financed by both Home Depot and Publix. These so called Doppler radar towers are actually a giant network of weather manipulating super-needles built by this immoral conglomerate to create the terror we experience every year as a hurricane.

I think I really got into weather when we moved to Virginia, and I discovered hurricane season. Growing up on the West Coast, all I really knew about weather was rain, and lots of it. Okay, well that and earthquakes. So hurricanes, tornadoes, water spouts, and things of this nature were all new to me. I had to learn more. Then, I met my friend Sam who is a meteorologist and he just sort of fed my obsession. And, he’s sent me some great radar shots of storms, and information from the National Weather Service, and explained things to me…he’s great. Check out some Sammie pictures here.

How does a hurricane form? Many large thunderstorms come together over ocean water and begin to swirl like a vortex. When this vortex becomes powerful enough, it is called a hurricane. It's easy to make your own model of a hurricane using plastic soda bottles.

Moscow Mayor Juri Luschkov said: "Weather forecasters in our city and the surrounding area will be held responsible for financial losses that the city incurs through their incorrect prognoses."....

He did not elaborate on how much the fines would be or if the cash would be taken from the weathermen, or the companies they worked for.

Quick, what's June 1st? Yes, it's Morgan Freeman's birthday. Yes, it's Potty Training Awareness month. What I was getting at, though, is that it's also the start of hurricane season, which extends until December 1. A new site is making available landfall estimates for different varieties of storm force winds over the next 50 years in 205 different counties, from Texas to Maine. The site is called the United States Landfall Probability Web site and it's available at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html .

The link between global warming and hurricanes is unclear, but this article has some good points on the possible connection.

There is near universal agreement in the scientific community that (a) global warming exists and (b) a significant component is caused by human activity. The exact mechanisms are still being worked out as are the timetables and consequences. The chart shown is used at nearly every general audience talk on global warming these days. Sadly we have an illiterate administration.

Direct relations with hurricanes are not well understood, although it seems to reason that more energy into a system that produces storms whose size and intensity is a function of water temperature will result in more and larger storms. Some work is emerging and much more is in the pipeline.

While it is impossible to tie the current events in the Southeastern US to global warming (some statistical arguments can be made to show that this is inconsistent with "normal"), one has to wonder when and how the association will be made in the public mind and how politicians will react.

Prime time TV has become obsessed with weather disasters, and "This kind of reporting normalises disaster and it becomes difficult to distinguish between Day After Tomorrow and CBS/CNN/The weather channel." The article that inspired Apocalypse was by Tom Engelhardt in Mother Jones:

Our media, of course, adores Xtreme weather events. Dan Rather's CBS prime-time news show, for instance, never saw an El Nino effect, a hurricane, a major flood, or an onslaught of snow that it didn't rush right to the top of the news; while those once Weather-Channel-restricted scenes of reporters, their bodies oddly angled, shouting into mics and staring into water-smeared lenses in the pelting rain of an onrushing storm are now commonplaces of the national news...

ResarchBuzz has lots of weather news, in particular, some pointers to hurricane landfall estimates:

Quick, what's June 1st? Yes, it's Morgan Freeman's birthday. Yes, it's Potty Training Awareness month. What I was getting at, though, is that it's also the start of hurricane season,...

Tempus Fugit notes that:

HurricaneCity.com has some info on the Sarasota area’s hurricane past.

A good question on stopping hurricanes from a CNN viewer.

Q: Why don't they destroy or weaken hurricanes when they threaten land?

A: The basic problem is the size and intensity of hurricanes. They cover tens of thousands of square miles even when they are just beginning. They draw their energy from air over hundreds of thousands of square miles of ocean. Cooling the water over this large area or finding a way to prevent evaporation of water would reduce hurricanes' strength. But, all of the dry ice in the world would be quickly absorbed in a small part of the ocean near a hurricane. Also, the hurricane would quickly move away from the cooled water or water covered with something to prevent evaporation.

The National Hurricane Center notes that a hurricane releases heat energy at a rate of 50 trillion to 200 trillion watts. (trillion here is used in the U.S. and French sense: a number followed by 12 zeros) This is the equivalent of a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding about every 20 minutes.