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noaa and hurricanes

August 07, 2007

On the Holland/Webster-Landsea Debate

hurricane noaa graph
A look at the debate on hurricane frequency and global warming.

Some strong words have been exchanged by Greg Holland (UCAR) and Chris Landsea (NOAA) on the recent paper by Holland/Webster in the Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society (hereafter, HW2007). Greg Holland inserted himself into the debate over greenhouse gas emissions, by predicting that hurricanes will increase without such reductions:

 

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On the Holland/Webster-Landsea Debate - A Guest Weblog by Roger A. Pielke, Jr.

Posted on August 7, 2007 11:41 AM by NOAA a29.
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July 02, 2007

No Man Is An (Urban Heat) Island

hurricane noaa data set
A look at global warming, data collection, and NOAA data sets.

This too is wrong. Since scientists started thinking about climate trends, concerns have been raised about the continuity of records - whether they are met. stations, satellites or ocean probes. The danger of mistakenly interpreting jumps due to measurement discontinuities as climate trends is well known. Some of the discontinuities (which can be of either sign) in weather records can be detected using jump point analyses (for instance in the new version of the NOAA product), others can be adjusted using known information (such as biases introduced because changes in the time of observations or moving a station).

 

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No man is an (Urban Heat) Island

Posted on July 2, 2007 11:42 AM by NOAA a29.
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June 18, 2007

Review: Storm World

hurricane storm world cover
A look at NOAA and the wild hurricane seasons of the past in Storm World.

Mooney covers many of the themes and issues we've discussed here before, but adds his own novel interpretations and uncovers a number of key historical details, in the process of stitching together a compelling narrative. Naturally, there is discussion of the hoopla over the active 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons and the aftermath of Katrina. There is extensive discussion of the high-profile studies by Emanuel, Webster, Curry and coworkers (see e.g. here and here) which, eerily coincident with the record-setting 2005 season, first suggested a detectable climate change signal in hurricane behavior.

 

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Storm World: A Review

Posted on June 18, 2007 11:40 AM by NOAA a29.
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August 29, 2006

One-Year Anniversary of Katrina

hurricane katrina rescue boat
It's hard to believe it's been one year since Hurricane Katrina.

I remember seeing the news in the days running up to the event. I remember we were at my brother's girlfriend's house for some sort of party (her graduation party? Kind of late for it, in September...). I remember Max Mayfield of NOAA (who is to retire in January) warning everyone to leave on the The Weather Channel. I remember Kanye West.

 

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One-Year Anniversary of Katrina

Posted on August 29, 2006 10:39 AM by NOAA a29.
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June 21, 2006

NHC Had Best Predictions

hurricane tropical storm alberto flooding
Apparently the National Hurricane Center predictions for Tropical Storm Alberto beat the computer models.

Masters also has a very interesting analysis of Alberto. Among other things, he notes that “the official NHC forecast outperformed all the [computer] models” in predicting Alberto’s track. Way to go, NHC! Masters talks about the Loop Current’s impact, too.

 

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“Almost unheard of”

Posted on June 21, 2006 11:39 PM by NOAA a29.
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Tips For Hurricane Travel

hurricane national hurricane center
From a good list of tips if you have to travel into a hurricane.

1. Check in with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) when planning a trip to a potential hurricane area.

 

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Surviving The Storm: Tips for Hurricane Travel

Posted on June 21, 2006 08:45 AM by NOAA a29.
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June 16, 2006

Don't Believe Everything You Read

hurricane shutters
From a good post on the variety of information on the Internet about installing hurricane shutters.

Lesson: Don’t believe everything that is out there on the web, even from resources such as NOAA. Standards have changed and we learn more from every disaster. Make sure you have the most up to date information possible to protect yourself and your family.

 

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“Hurricane Shutters” Google Search & Plywood Shutter Installation

Posted on June 16, 2006 09:40 AM by NOAA a29.
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June 08, 2006

Hurricane Season Starts Today

hurricane 2005 facts
How will the 2006 hurricane season compare to the 2005 hurricane season?

Another summer of Weather Channel watching and browsing to the NOAA site for me. I really hope there’s no need to evacuate like there was last year for Rita. What a royal pain in the ass that was, but also kind of fun once we got off the damn highway and into the hotel we’d booked in ALABAMA.

 

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Hurricane Season Starts Today

Posted on June 8, 2006 05:39 AM by NOAA a29.
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June 03, 2006

Hurricane Predictions

hurricane on shore
A good post on the state of the art of hurricane predictions.

Charles Fenwick at Eye of the Storm has a post about a new NOAA map that analyzes the percentage probability of tropical development, at any given time, in 4,000-square-mile blocks of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins. Pretty cool. Currently, the greatest threat area is due south of the Manzanillo area in Mexico, where The Storm Track says Tropical Depression 2E might soon form.

 

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Tropical update, 6/2/06

Posted on June 3, 2006 09:39 AM by NOAA a29.
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May 09, 2006

NOAA's Weather Service RSS Feeds

hurricane noaa weather warning tornado
If you'd like to read NOAA's Weather Service Feeds in your RSS reader, click through.

Link: Experimental XML Feeds and Web Displays of Watches, Warnings, and Advisories.

 

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NOAA’s National Weather Service XML Feeds

Posted on May 9, 2006 08:49 AM by NOAA a29.
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December 17, 2005

Warming Trend

hurricane sea level increases
Scientists have not drawn the conclusion that increased hurricane activity is related to global warming, but it's a tempting conclusion.

According to one government report, by NASA's Goddard Institute, 2005 was the hottest year on record. By the measure of two others, it was the second hottest, and hottest in the northern hemisphere. The others were by NOAA and the United Kingdom's Meteorological Institute.

 

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Warming Trend

Posted on December 17, 2005 09:41 AM by NOAA a29.
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November 27, 2005

Tropical Storm Delta

hurricane tropical storm delta
Yet again: Tropical Storm Delta.

I have not written anything about Tropical Storm Delta after it formed as I thought it was a last gasp type of storm that would fade away soon after its formation. However, the storm has persisted and is now making its way towards the Cape Verde Islands and the shores of Morocco.

 

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Tropical Storm Delta

Posted on November 27, 2005 12:42 PM by NOAA a29.
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November 13, 2005

Public Domain Photography

hurricane hoaa p3 orion and lear jet
Great hurricane photos at the NOAA website.

Aside from NASA (as found in my previous post) there are other government agencies that have public domain photos availible. One such agency is NOAA, that's right the folks that do the weather forecast and issue hurricane alerts also take pictures. At the NOAA Photo Library you can find everything from animals to tonadoes, sunsets to ships and satellites to airplanes.

 

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More Public Domain Photography

Posted on November 13, 2005 07:45 AM by NOAA a29.
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October 22, 2005

Tropical Storm Alpha

hurricane tropical storm alpha predicted track
Tropical Storm Alpha makes 2005 the busiest storm season on record. Landfall in Hispaniola estimated just before dawn tomorrow.
As of 2:00 PM EDT... Tropical Depression TWENTY-FIVE (Click here for PUBLIC ADVISORY) had Maximum sustained Winds of near 35 MPH with higher gust... Estimated Minimum Central Pressure is 1007 MB... The Depression is becoming better organized and may become a TROPICAL STORM later this afternoon... This would be a record for most Tropical Storms in one year in the Atlantic Basin and the first time the Greek Alphabet has ever been used to name an Atlantic Storm. This storm will be named “ALPHA” if it should develop into the record books....
 

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AubreyJ.org: Hurricane Wilma- Update Saturday, October 22, 2005

Posted on October 22, 2005 04:19 PM by NOAA a29.
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September 17, 2005

Hurricane Katrina Drives Online Traffic

hurricane katrina line repair
Click through for the Nielsen online stats for Hurricane Katrina.

Nielsen/NetRatings reports online traffic to redcross.org and NOAA showed significant increases during and with the aftermath of hurricane Katrina. Here is the Nielsen chart:

 

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Nielsen: Katrina Drives Online Traffic

Posted on September 17, 2005 10:43 AM by NOAA a29.
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August 03, 2005

Tropical Depression #8

hurricane andrew weather model
Don't get too depressed by all the depressions.

As tropical depression #8 forms in the Atlantic tonight and NOAA predicts an even worse hurricane season than initially forecasted in May, I can’t help but feel fortunate that the Tampa Bay area and most parts of Florida (with the exception of the Panhandle, unfortunately) affected by last season have been spared so far this season.

 

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I May Jinx Myself, But . . .

Posted on August 3, 2005 10:45 AM by NOAA a29.
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July 19, 2005

Hurricane Tracking Application

hurricane emily forecast
Haven't checked out this application, but it sounds very useful.

Dev Anand Teelucksingh sent this link to MegaTrack, “an OSS application that tracks Atlantic and eastern Pacific tropical storms on a map. Requires Java to run and installs available for Windows, Linux and MacOS X. Gets the storm locations from NOAA’s NHC website.”

 

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Hurricane Tracking App/Caribbean Free Photo

Posted on July 19, 2005 09:59 AM by NOAA a29.
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June 17, 2005

Tsunami Warning Fails

hurricane tsunami warning sign
After a 7.0 earthquake off the coast of California this week, the tsunami warning system failed to clear beaches.

Report from Washington State: NOAA’s weather and hazard alert radio failed during Tuesday night’s tsunami warning on the West Coast.

 

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More than 100,000 homes across at least seven Texas counties lose power after transmission failure; Storms cut power to Penn., W. Va. residents; Report: NOAA’s weather and hazard alert radio failed during tsunami warning; Study: Increasing dust stor

Posted on June 17, 2005 10:24 AM by NOAA a29.
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April 18, 2005

2005 Hurricane Predictions for the Atlantic

hurricane hits home
After 2004, we'll take this prediction!

William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach have recently revised their annual forecast for likely hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. They foresee an above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic in 2005. They also anticipate an above-average probability of US major hurricane landfall. They have adjusted their forecast upward from an early December forecast and state that they may further raise their prediction in later updates if they...

 

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2005 Hurricane Predictions for the Atlantic

Posted on April 18, 2005 06:13 AM by NOAA a29.
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March 14, 2005

Project Stormfury

hurricanes stormfury project
Project Stormfury was an attempt in the 1960s and 1970s to slow down hurricanes by seeding hurricane clouds. The blogger argues it should be restarted.

The NOAA web site has a graphical depiction of Project Stormfury Hypothesis. Here's another article on Project Stormfury. My own take on the skepticism expressed in the article is that that science is all about experimentation. If an attempt at cloud seeding was attempted on a much larger scale (say bump up the seeding by a couple of orders of magnitude) using today's technology then the seeding approach could be much more thoroughly tested.

Some people are going to oppose climate engineering because, for reasons that are religious in character, they believe that humans do not have the right to intervene in nature to cause climate scale changes. Others will oppose it out of fear of unintended consequences. However, even if we reject the sort of moral philosophy that views natures as something that should not be tampered with and even if we may some day know enough to be able to predict all major consequences there will still be another argument against climate engineering: any intentional shift in weather that causes changes in one place will cause changes throughout the world. As a consequence of those changes (no matter how large or small) there are bound to be winners and losers throughout the world as well. For instance, a slight increase or decrease in rainfall in other countries will either increase flooding or lead to a reduction of crop yields.

 

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FuturePundit: Large Scale Engineering Archives

Posted on March 14, 2005 08:51 PM by NOAA a29.
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Saffir-Simpson Scale

hurricane saffir simpson scale
The Saffir-Simpson scale is to hurricanes as the Richter scale is to earthquakes.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.
 

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The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Posted on March 14, 2005 08:47 PM by NOAA a29.
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March 12, 2005

Pacific Cyclone Activity 2004

hurricane cyclone season 2004
Here's summary of the 2004 cyclone season from NOAA.
Total activity for the tropical cyclone season was slightly below normal, with three systems occurring within the area of responsibility of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). One tropical cyclone (01-C) developed within the central Pacific and the other two, Darby and Estelle, moved into the area from the eastern Pacific. Estelle was the strongest of the three systems and the only one of tropical storm intensity. There were no deaths recorded or property damage reported in the central North Pacific due to these three tropical cyclones.
 

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Overview of the 2004 Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season

Posted on March 12, 2005 05:31 PM by NOAA a29.
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March 11, 2005

Typhoon Meari

hurricane typhoon meari
With all the news about hurricanes last year, Typhoons got little coverage. Typhoon Meari hit southern Japan and killed at least 18 people in 2004.
The MODIS instrument flying aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured this true-color image of Typhoon Meari along the eastern China coast on September 27, 2004 at 02:55 UTC. At the time this image was taken, Meari had maximum sustained winds near 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots. Meari was expected to weaken slightly over the next 24 hours and make a gradual turn to the north.
 

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EO Natural Hazards: Typhoon Meari

Posted on March 11, 2005 07:52 PM by NOAA a29.
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March 05, 2005

NOAA Coastal Observation

hurricane noaa coastal observation map
NOAA provides coastal observations around the U.S. Click for more information on observations in each coastal area.
This site provides information and links to a number of coastal ocean observing systems in the United States. Data collection platforms include moored and drifting buoys, meteorological towers and stations, bottom-moored instruments, stand-alone instruments, ship survey cruises, satellite imagery, and remotely and autonomously operated vehicles. Both operational and research systems throughout the U.S. are included here.
 

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U.S. Coastal Observing Systems

Posted on March 5, 2005 12:25 AM by NOAA a29.
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March 01, 2005

NOAA Concerned With Coastal Population Growth

hurricane landslide
NOAA says that population growth in areas prone to natural disasters on both U.S. coasts is making hurricanes, landslides and other natural disasters more expensive.

More than half of all Americans live on or near the nation's coastal areas, and the number is growing, posing a challenge for emergency management officials in the event of hurricanes, tsunamis and other natural disasters, federal officials said Tuesday.

Coastal area growth also poses environmental and economic challenges to local governments, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a report on coastal population trends.

Whether it's tsunamis on the West Coast or hurricanes and other storms in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, rising populations complicate evacuations and make emergency response more complex, officials said.

 

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ABC News: Natural Disasters on Coasts Concern NOAA

Posted on March 1, 2005 01:50 PM by NOAA a29.
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February 26, 2005

10 Most Deadly Hurricanes

hurricane storm 10 most deadly

The ten most deadly hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, measured since 1492. Listed by hurricane, location, date and estimated casualties.

 	
Barbados, St. Eustatius, Martinique	
Oct. 1780
20,000-22,000

Mitch, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize
Oct. 1998	
9,086 dead,
9190 missing

Galveston,
Sept. 1900
8,000 - 12,000

Fifi, Honduras
Sept. 1974
8,000 - 10,000

Dominican Republic
Sept. 1930
2,000 - 8,000

Flora, Haiti, Cuba
Oct. 1963
8,000

Guadeloupe
Sept. 1776
6,000

Newfoundland Banks
Sept. 1775
4,000

Puerto Rico, Carolinas
Aug. 1899
3,063 - 3,433

Martinique, Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, Turks and Caicos, Florida
Sept. 1928
3,375 - 4,075
 

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USATODAY.com

Posted on February 26, 2005 10:20 AM by NOAA a29.
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February 22, 2005

Galveston Hurricane 1900

Galveston Hurricane

With all the recent hurricanes, sometimes it's good to look back to time before people could get warnings on TV and radio.

This killer weather system was first detected over the tropical Atlantic on August 27. While the history of the track and intensity is not fully known, the system reached Cuba as a tropical storm on September 3 and moved into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on the 5th. A general west-northwestward motion occurred over the Gulf accompanied by rapid intensification. By the time the storm reached the Texas coast south of Galveston late on September 8, it was a Category 4 hurricane. After landfall, the cyclone turned northward through the Great Plains. It became extratropical and turned east-northeastward on September 11, passing across the Great Lakes, New England, and southeastern Canada. It was last spotted over the north Atlantic on September 15.

This hurricane was the deadliest weather disaster in United States history. Storm tides of 8 to 15 ft inundated the whole of Galveston Island, as well as other portions of the nearby Texas coast. These tides were largely responsible for the 8,000 deaths (estimates range from 6,000 to 12,000) attributed to the storm. The damage to property was estimated at $30 million.

 

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Hurricane History

Posted on February 22, 2005 11:05 AM by NOAA a29.
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Why So Many Hurricanes in 2004?

2004 saw a large number of high energy hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, especially in Florida.

An article from the Christian Science Monitor today on the analysis and impacts of the recent hurricanes.

Last month marked the first time since the beginning of postwar hurricane reconnaissance flights that August generated three major hurricanes in the Atlantic. If the current forecast track for hurricane Ivan holds, it will be the third hurricane to strike Florida in a month.

Yet for all its fury, this season's burst of activity falls well within the bounds of past experience. What's surprising, say experts, is that the US and Florida haven't seen more major storms make landfall over the past few decades.

.... Yet even with improved forecasting tools, the public doesn't always put the information to best use, some researchers say. "We still can't explain why only some people leave and others don't," says Jay Baker, a geographer at Florida State University in Tallahassee who works on emergency-preparedness issues. Understanding that motivation may help officials devise education programs to encourage more people to heed calls for evacuation.

That response may have less to do with knowing the difference between a hurricane watch and a hurricane warning than it does with perceptions of individual risk, he says - a perception that can include misconceptions about how far a person needs to travel to avoid the storm. The solution can be as simple as more accurate hazard maps .....

 

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Cafe HedonistiX: Science

Posted on February 22, 2005 11:00 AM by NOAA a29.
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February 21, 2005

How Hurricanes Evolve

Birth of a Cyclone

Hurricanes and cyclones start the same way.

Several important ingredients are needed for a tropical disturbance to become a tropical cyclone and later strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane:

1. A tropical disturbance with thunderstorms.
2. A distance of at least 500 kilometers (300 miles) from the equator.
3. Ocean temperatures of 26.5�C (80�F) or warmer to a depth of at least 50 meters (164 feet) below the surface.
4. Lots of moisture in the lower and middle part of the atmosphere.
5. Low wind shear.

 

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Hurricanes & Tropical Cyclone Life Cycles

Posted on February 21, 2005 10:55 AM by NOAA a29.
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Hurricane Season

Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Ocean.

This site has lots of good hurricane info including hurricane seasons.

Hurricanes happen in both the Atlantic Basin and the Eastern Pacific Ocean, but the season is a little different in each place.

In the Atlantic Basin, hurricane season officially begins on June 1st and lasts until the end of November each year. This chart shows the average number of tropical storms (gold) and hurricanes (red) in the Atlantic Basin during a period of 100 years.

 

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Hurricanes & Tropical Cyclone Seasons

Posted on February 21, 2005 10:50 AM by NOAA a29.
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February 19, 2005

NOAA Description of Hurricanes

Hurricane Comes to Shore

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the government agency that studies hurricanes and other weather-related events. Here is the NOAA description of a hurricane.

A hurricane is a severe tropical storm, that forms in the southern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico or in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Hurricanes need warm tropical oceans, moisture and light winds above them. If the right conditions last long enough, a hurricane can produce violent winds, incredible waves, torrential rains and floods.

Hurricanes rotate in a counterclockwise direction around an "eye." Hurricanes have winds at least 74 miles per hour. There are on average six Atlantic hurricanes each year; over a 3-year period, approximately five hurricanes strike the United States coastline from Texas to Maine.

When hurricanes move onto land, the heavy rain, strong winds and heavy waves can damage buildings, trees and cars. The heavy waves are called a storm surge. Storm surge is very dangerous and a major reason why you MUST stay away from the ocean during a hurricane warning or hurricane.

 

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Hurricanes: Nature

Posted on February 19, 2005 09:52 PM by NOAA a29.
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