Hurricane!

I started blogging early in 06 thanks to help and support from The Dumb Ox. In June I started GCHT thinking I would have a bunch to wrote about for the 2006 hurricane season. Well that didn't happen, fortunately.

August comes in with me washing Saharan African dust off my car as the dry and dusty atmosphere was invading from the east here in South Florida. This same dry air and dust had a lot to do with the lack of hurricane development in the Atlantic in 2006. Things started to become a bit more active as we moved into the first and second day of August with the development of Tropical Storm Chris. The “C” named storm this year was not going to hurt anyone or damage anyone’s property like the previous two seasons with major category four Hurricane Charley in Punta Gorda, Florida in 2004, and Hurricane Cindy in southeastern Louisiana in 2005. Tropical Storm Chris went on to weaken and die over the Southeastern Bahamas.

This is it, 30 days and the 2006 Hurricane Season is over or what we want to hope for.

It’s clear from the 5:00 AM discussion that the National Hurricane Center really doesn’t have a terribly good handle yet on the track or intensity forecast for this storm. “Last night’s computer model runs did not start out with a very good initial picture of the current strength of Chris, and dissipated the storm within 72 hours,” writes Dr. Jeff Masters. “We need to wait until the next set of model runs based on this morning’s 8am EDT (12Z) data are available before taking much stock in both the track and intensity forecasts of the models.” The 12Z model runs will be incorporated into the 11am EDT (8am MST) NHC advisory, so that forecast will be worth watching for.

We have made it a lucky seven weeks into this 2006 hurricane season with only two named storms. Compared to this time last year - this is a noticeably slower start to the season. By this time in 2005 - FIVE named storms, including an at one time cat 5 Hurricane Emily - the strongest storm to ever form in the Atlantic before August, had already formed.

Getting back to The Storm Track, Moyer notes in the same post that, contrary to my previous alarmism, the sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are actually now lower than what they were last year. (About that previous post… Charles Fenwick took me to task somewhat, noting that “SSTs can be volatile on a daily basis” and therefore “it is more useful to look at at a longer term average and compare it to a long term norm” — a strategy which produces a less alarming result. Fenwick’s visual evidence of my error was not entirely accurate, but his overall point was sound.)

Well, it's all part of my job! The weekend is here, and yes, I am "off" duty. However, it is hurricane season, and that means 6 months of always being on duty is some way. Hot pretty much sums up the local weekend forecast. A few coastal t-showers could occur Sunday. The system near the Yucatan has my full attention. A surface low pressure is forming and pressure levels are steadily falling. It looks as if it could become a depression Saturday. The hurricane hunters are scheduled to investigate this system if necessary Saturday afternoon.

NOAA has released its 2006 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes.

I made this at StormAdvisory.org using some newsworthy East Coast storms, such as Hurricane #4 (1938), Tropical Storm #7 (1938), Hurricane Bob (1985), Hurricane Bob (1991), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Hurricane #1 (1893), Hurricane Carol (1954), Hurricane Floyd (1999).

I decided to discuss the letter with my husband who said, “Yeah, we’ve been lucky so far but we really ought to consider buying some.” That led to a lengthy online search that led us back to our insurance company. I’d rather deal with my insurance company than the United States government if I had to file a claim after a disaster. I thought the price was fairly reasonable at $233.00 a year. That could be because I live in the one very small zone in Baytown that is out of the flood areas.

This man is mentally ill. The hurricane season is barreling down upon us and everyone knows the federal government is not ready.

New insurance policies up and down the Gulf Coast are far more expensive and more restrictive as to what they cover than earlier policies. That's going to affect a whole lot of people, even those who were not directly affected by Katrina, Rita, or Wilma.

Just remember boys and girls: only 60 more shopping days until hurricane season ‘06.