Hurricane!

The jury is out on Tropical Storm Chris at the moment.

It’s clear from the 5:00 AM discussion that the National Hurricane Center really doesn’t have a terribly good handle yet on the track or intensity forecast for this storm. “Last night’s computer model runs did not start out with a very good initial picture of the current strength of Chris, and dissipated the storm within 72 hours,” writes Dr. Jeff Masters. “We need to wait until the next set of model runs based on this morning’s 8am EDT (12Z) data are available before taking much stock in both the track and intensity forecasts of the models.” The 12Z model runs will be incorporated into the 11am EDT (8am MST) NHC advisory, so that forecast will be worth watching for.